Lexus Melbourne Cup – Flemington – tips

A Melbourne Cup Day special today and the day has started gloriously in Melbourne, with a potential track upgrade at Flemington after a few days of rain.

The track is currently rated a soft 6 and the weather is predicted to be fine for the day.

Meeting Tips

Race One – Darley Ottawa Stakes – 1000m

SH:         8 – Muntaseera

MP:        13 – Thala

 

Race Two – Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy – 1400m

SH:         7 – Phaistos

MP:        9 – Secret Vega (each way)

 

Race Three – TAB Trophy – 1700m

SH:         10 – Seewhatshebrings

MP:        6 – Romani Girl

 

Race Four – The Macca’s Run – 2800m

SH:         3 – Shared Ambition

MP:        7 – Gayatri

 

Race Five – Schweppervescence Plate – 1000m

SH:         4 – Garner

MP:        14 – Athiri

 

Race Six – Jim Beam Stakes – 1400m

SH:         9 – Victory Kingdom

MP:        4 – Sweet Scandal

 

Race Eight – Furphy Plate – 1800m

SH:         6 – Plein Ciel

MP:        17 – Junipal

 

Race Nine – MSS Security Sprint – 1200m

SH:         1 – Royal Symphony

MP:        6 – Parsifal

 

Race Ten – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes – 1400m

SH:         6 – Betcha Flying

MP:        2 – Akari

 

Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – 3200m – Stephen Humphreys

Winner:                23 – Vow and Declare – ticks all but one box for me. Gets in at a great weight, flew home over the 3000m in the Tatts Cup in June and like the trainer/jockey combination.  Barrier a question mark but will be in the running when they hit to the turn.

Roughie:              10 – Twilight Payment – Bowman steering the decisive factor for me.  Had excuses last start and definitely gets the trip.

Last Place:          15 – Magic Wand – Massive unders for mine.  Drawn 24 of 24 and looks a 2000 metre runner.  Just cannot see her running the trip.

Trifecta:               Box 10, 11, 12, 19 and 23

Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – 3200m – Mindy Pawsey

Winner:                12 – Prince of Arran – he seems to really enjoy Australian conditions.  Distance is no issue after running 3rd in last year’s Cup, backing up from the Saturday – he doesn’t have that recovery issue here.  Handles a soft track and has a great heart and desire to win. Likes running off pace and with a decent barrier, can stay out of trouble. He’s $17 at time of writing and I’m not sure how last year’s place-getter in almost identical conditions but up only a kilo in weights is quite that long.

Roughie:              24 – Youngstar – Has run the distance before and finished sixth in last year’s Cup even after getting caught up in the early race carnage, and although last year’s prep was a lot better than this years (I think she’s plateaued a little since then), she handles a soft track and in the event of an upgrade, can run on a good track that’s chopped up.  With a light weight, and a class jockey and master trainer, I never want to write her off.

Last Place:          22 – The Chosen One – I hate tipping anything last as it’s just as likely to win to spite me, but the distance, soft track and barrier all seem against The Chosen One. Good luck to him though.

Trifecta:               Box 1, 7, 8, 11, 12, 18, 20, 24.

Good luck and happy punting!

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Victorian Derby – Flemington – tips and Best Bets

Another Cox Plate wrapped up with both Stephen and Mindy having a day of profit.

Results from last week from TAB closing fixed odds:

Best Bets – Stephen Humphreys

Moonee Valley – Race 6, Number 1 – Battenburg – $50 win – unplaced (no win)

Randwick – Race 3, Number 1 – Diamond Thunder – $50 win – 1st ($3.20 – won $160.00)

Ascot – Race 8, Number 9 – Celebrity Queen – $50 win – unplaced (no win)

Morphettville – Race 4, Number 4 – The Bull McCabe – $25 each way – scratched

Total:    outlay $150.00, won $160.00

Running Total:   -$1,353.25

Best Bets – Mindy Pawsey

Randwick – Race 7, Number 1 – Kubrick – $50 win – 1st ($3.80 – won $190.00)

Moonee Valley – Race 8, Number 9 – Pacodali – $25 each way – 4th (no win)

Morphettville – Race 5, Number 5 – Papalet – $25 each way – unplaced (no win)

Ascot – Race 7, Number 9 – Forgotten Star – $25 each way – 2nd ($1.85 – won $46.25)

Total:    outlay $200.00, won $236.25

Running Total:   -$834.00

 

We’re over to Flemington for the official start of the Flemington Carnival with Derby Day, the best day of thoroughbred racing in the country.

The track is currently rated a soft 5 and the weather is predicted to be showery for the day.

Meeting Tips

Race One – TAB Stakes – 1200m

SH:         4 – Zoutori

MP:        4 – Zoutori

 

Race Two – G.H. Mumm Wakeful Stakes – 2000m

SH:         1 – Flit

MP:        5 – Vegas Jewel

 

Race Three – Network 10 Carbine Club Stakes – 1600m

SH:         1 – Dalasan

MP:        2 – Groundswell

 

Race Four – Lexus Hotham Stakes – 2500m

SH:         6 – Patrick Erin (each way)

MP:        13 – Carif

 

Race Five – TAB Empire Rose Stakes – 1600m

SH:         9 – Pohutukawa

MP:        2 – Melody Belle

 

Race Six – Coolmore Stud Stakes – 1200m

SH:         12 – Libertini

MP:        6 – Exceedance

 

Race Seven – AAMI Victoria Derby – 2500m

SH:         4 – Warning

MP:        8 – Long Jack (each way)

 

Race Eight – Kennedy Cantala – 1600m

SH:         5 – Royal Meeting

MP:        6 – Fierce Impact

 

Race Nine – Furphy Sprint – 1100m

SH:         2 – Tofane

MP:        6 – Demerara

 

Best Bets – Stephen Humphreys

2 November 2019

Rosehill – Race 8, Number 1 – Pierata – $50 win

Eagle Farm – Race 1, Number 3 – Magstock – $50 win

Ascot – Race 5, Number 6 – Inflation – $50 win

Flemington – Race 6, Number 12 – Libertini – $50 win

Best Bets – Mindy Pawsey

2 November 2019

Eagle Farm – Race 2, Number 7 – Wisdom of Water – $50 win

Ascot – Race 6, Number 6 – Platoon – $50 win

Rosehill – Race 1, Number 11 – Indy Car – $50 win

Flemington – Race 8, Number 6 – Fierce Impact – $25 each way

Good luck and happy punting!

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