A Melbourne Cup Day special today and the day has started gloriously in Melbourne, with a potential track upgrade at Flemington after a few days of rain.
The track is currently rated a soft 6 and the weather is predicted to be fine for the day.
Race One – Darley Ottawa Stakes – 1000m
SH: 8 – Muntaseera
MP: 13 – Thala
Race Two – Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy – 1400m
SH: 7 – Phaistos
MP: 9 – Secret Vega (each way)
Race Three – TAB Trophy – 1700m
SH: 10 – Seewhatshebrings
MP: 6 – Romani Girl
Race Four – The Macca’s Run – 2800m
SH: 3 – Shared Ambition
MP: 7 – Gayatri
Race Five – Schweppervescence Plate – 1000m
SH: 4 – Garner
MP: 14 – Athiri
Race Six – Jim Beam Stakes – 1400m
SH: 9 – Victory Kingdom
MP: 4 – Sweet Scandal
Race Eight – Furphy Plate – 1800m
SH: 6 – Plein Ciel
MP: 17 – Junipal
Race Nine – MSS Security Sprint – 1200m
SH: 1 – Royal Symphony
MP: 6 – Parsifal
Race Ten – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes – 1400m
SH: 6 – Betcha Flying
MP: 2 – Akari
Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – 3200m – Stephen Humphreys
Winner: 23 – Vow and Declare – ticks all but one box for me. Gets in at a great weight, flew home over the 3000m in the Tatts Cup in June and like the trainer/jockey combination. Barrier a question mark but will be in the running when they hit to the turn.
Roughie: 10 – Twilight Payment – Bowman steering the decisive factor for me. Had excuses last start and definitely gets the trip.
Last Place: 15 – Magic Wand – Massive unders for mine. Drawn 24 of 24 and looks a 2000 metre runner. Just cannot see her running the trip.
Trifecta: Box 10, 11, 12, 19 and 23
Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – 3200m – Mindy Pawsey
Winner: 12 – Prince of Arran – he seems to really enjoy Australian conditions. Distance is no issue after running 3rd in last year’s Cup, backing up from the Saturday – he doesn’t have that recovery issue here. Handles a soft track and has a great heart and desire to win. Likes running off pace and with a decent barrier, can stay out of trouble. He’s $17 at time of writing and I’m not sure how last year’s place-getter in almost identical conditions but up only a kilo in weights is quite that long.
Roughie: 24 – Youngstar – Has run the distance before and finished sixth in last year’s Cup even after getting caught up in the early race carnage, and although last year’s prep was a lot better than this years (I think she’s plateaued a little since then), she handles a soft track and in the event of an upgrade, can run on a good track that’s chopped up. With a light weight, and a class jockey and master trainer, I never want to write her off.
Last Place: 22 – The Chosen One – I hate tipping anything last as it’s just as likely to win to spite me, but the distance, soft track and barrier all seem against The Chosen One. Good luck to him though.
Trifecta: Box 1, 7, 8, 11, 12, 18, 20, 24.
Good luck and happy punting!