Welcome to the third day of the Flemington Spring Racing Carnival, Crown
Oaks Day – especially for the ladies!
We’ve had a look at the race as follows:
Winner: Yankee Rose (1)
Everytime I look at the form for this week and try to find something to beat Yankee Rose I cannot. Whilst I am loathe to tip such a short favourite this is one of those rare times where it just feels right. After running into the Winx / Hartnell show in the Cox Plate this should feel like a walk in the park.
Roughie: Moqueen (4)
I think the best guide for this horse’s form this preparation came out of the Dulcify at Randwick where she struck a dry track for the first time out in 5 races. Was excellent that day. Was solid last start coming 4th behind Eleonara (the second favourite here) and the form out of that race has been franked by Tiamo Grace’s win on Saturday.
With such a short priced favourite in the race it is tough to not want to just stand Yankee Rose and box up the rest of the horses in the race for the minor placings. I have done the first part of that strategy but have tried to limit my inclusions in the second part as follows:
1 / 3,4,5,6,7 (for the quinella / exacta)
1/ 3,4,5,6,7 / 2,3,4,5,6,7,10,15 (for the trifecta)
I am avoiding the first 4 today for no other reason that I am not sure the return will be there for this strategy.
Your investments this way will reap the following:
Quinella: $10 returns 200% of the dividend
Exacta: $10 returns 200% of the dividend
Trifecta: $29.75 returns 85% of the dividend.
Winner: Eleonora (5)
Although it was extremely difficult to tip against the very, very short favourite, Eleonora is the next best chance in the race on form and class. She’ll have the added benefit of not being the hunted, which I’m a little worried might be Yankee Rose’s undoing. There’s no doubt that Yankee Rose’s run in the Cox Plate was solid but as a swooper, she will need to get through a lot of tiring traffic – something that, if Eleonora stays, will be avoiding a little closer to the front. Eleonora’s defeat of Tiamo Grace, a winner on Derby Day, was a strong one, finishing 1.3 lengths in front in a Group 3 over 2000m, so I don’t think the distance will be her issue.
Roughie: Harlow Gold (7)
Her last start was at the Valley in the Group 2 Vase Stakes, finishing 5.3 lengths behind Sacred Elixir, the Derby runner up – so she should find this easier. Her 5th in the Thousand Guineas wasn’t too bad – I think she might just prefer to have a little cut out of the ground. Nevertheless, the Hayes stable seem confident. She will start at double figure odds, so it might be worth including her in your multiples.