Melbourne Cup – Flemington – tips

Welcome to Melbourne Cup Day, Australia’s most famous race internationally.

With Jameka as the only locally bred horse in the field, it’s testament to the attraction and prestige that the race holds globally.

We’ve had a look at the great race as follows:

SH:

WinnerWicklow Brave (8)

 

Won the Irish St Leger last start against a quality field some of whom have gone on to bigger wins.  Really like the trainer, William Mullins, who does not bring horse out here unprepared.  Dettori takes the ride.  My biggest investment of the day will be here with the odds currently $15 / $4.50 with Ladbrokes.

 

ValueAlmoonqith (9)

 

Gets to the 3200 with experience over the distance (a winner of the Sandown Cup) and absolutely rattled home to run fourth in the Caulfield Cup.  On that form the $21 / $6 currently on offer with Ladbrokes looks significant overs to me.

 

Multiples:

 

This year my numbers for exotics are:

1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 13, 17, 20

 

The 8 horses boxed leads to the following investments and dividends:

 

Quinella = $19.88 for a 71% return

Exacta = $19.60 for a 35% return

Trifecta = $33.60 for a 10% return

First 4 = $84.00 for a 5% return

 

LayHartnell (6)

 

There are plenty of horses that I think can not win the Cup this year and one of them is the favourite.  Combine ordinary form over the distance in Australia (not sure he runs out the trip to be honest) and the effort in the Cox Plate (where he was under pressure from a long way out) and I just can not touch him.  Might end up looking a fool but that’s racing.

 

MP:

WinnerAlmoonqith (9)

 

Proven winner at the 3200m and hard to ignore his fourth in the Caulfield Cup when he was blocked for a run at an imperative stage.  Has had four runs this preparation and should be at peak fitness.  Really respect the Hayes team who have given the horse the every opportunity to show his abilities here – very solid.

 

ValueCurren Mirotic (3)

 

The Japanese trainers don’t send nags.  Although he is yet to win beyond 2000m, at $16 odd a place, he’s certainly worth thinking about.  Finished second in a cracking Tenno Sho Group 1 in Japan behind Kitasan Black – run over 3200m.  Age might be against him, but I can’t shake his credentials.

 

Multiples:

 

1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 20

 

The 8 horses boxed leads to the following investments and dividends:

 

Quinella = $19.88 for a 71% return

Exacta = $19.60 for a 35% return

Trifecta = $33.60 for a 10% return

First 4 = $84.00 for a 5% return

 

LayJameka (12)

 

I’m sure she’s going to make me look an absolute dill and being the only Australian horse through and through in the field I’d love for her to show me up, but I’m not too sure how she will go over the two miles. Yes, she’s an Oaks winner over 2500m but that was a year ago against her own age and sex.  Taking on tougher horses over a distance she is yet to attempt in a race that has a lot at stake and I’m just not confident that she will be at her best.  I hope I’m wrong!

About Mindy Pawsey

Overly passionate Aussie sportswriter who holds as many Tour de France titles as Lance Armstrong, as many Rugby World Cups as Quade Cooper and has lost less Ashes series than Ricky Ponting. You offer me biltong, I promise I'm yours - and PC isn't my thing. Follow me on Twitter at @MKPS001.
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